Roadmap to Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Nigeria’s Energy Sector (2)

 

By Engr. Adesegun Olutayo Osibanjo

 

You are warmly welcome with great pleasure to Part 2 – Oil & Gas, the concluding part of this treatise, after Part 1 – Electric Power was successfully analyzed, well packaged, and delivered. This part will not come to you less as well.

Let us start on a congratulatory note to the Federal Government of Nigeria on the successful commencement of operations at the Port Harcourt Refining and Petrochemical Company in Rivers State on Wednesday, 20th December 2023, following the completion of the first phase of work at the Plant. This is a promise of continuity made and kept by the All Progressives Congress Government that successive Administrations over the years have spent humongous amounts running into several trillions of naira to revamp all three (3) Refineries but could not deliver since the advent of the 4^th Republic, although we are believing that Warri and Kaduna Refineries will also come on stream in due course.

President Bola Ahmed Adekunle Akanbi Tinubu GCFR is highly commended for being a listening President and for the bold steps he has taken so far in steering the Ship of State in the right direction since he assumed Office by ordering the launch of full-scale investigations into the activities of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation and other Government agencies involved in corrupt practices.

There are many other Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) that are deeply enmeshed in heinous corrupt practices on a scale far higher than the discoveries already made that will never get exposed in the public space due to the active connivance of the Civil servants involved in the deals. This leads to an exigency for the President to constitute a special Presidential audit committee to audit the Books of all MDAs quarterly and report back directly to the President to checkmate the institutionalized corruption that has eaten so deep into the fabric of our Nation and recommend Ministers, Government Officials, and Civil servants for BettaEducation with special attention on MENTORING as recommended by His Excellency Femi Pedro.

Overview

Nigeria has proven Oil reserves of approximately 37.0 billion, ranking as the tenth (10^th) largest in the World and the second (2^nd) largest in Africa.

Also, according to NNPC, Nigeria has 208.83 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of untapped proven Gas reserves ranking as the ninth (9^th) largest in the World and the largest in Africa accounting for 33% of the continent’s Gas reserves. The Natural gas reserves are three times as substantial as the Crude oil reserves.

According to NLNG on 20^th April 2023 through its Managing Director, Dr. Phillip Mshelbila, over 60% of Nigerians suffer from severe Energy poverty which is in sharp contrast to the foregoing amazing statistics of the natural availability of Oil and Gas reserves in our Niger Delta region. Energy poverty encompasses the non-availability of energy resources in the diversity necessary for households to sufficiently make choices, financial constraints to access energy services, and general unavailability of modern energy sources that are clean, safe for the environment, and support economic and human development in terms of meeting the basic needs of households and economic activities in the productive sector.

Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Nigeria’s Energy Sector for Oil and Gas will fully address the two main indices that determine Energy poverty as follows:

1. Non-availability of clean Energy sources, safe for the environment, and support economic and human development in terms of meeting the basic needs of households and economic activities in the productive sector in the diversity necessary to sufficiently make choices
2. Lack of financial capacity to afford the type of energy that households and the Productive sector require for normal functionality

Now, let’s proceed with the analysis of the indices of Energy poverty in the reverse order based on the severity of impact on Nigerians:

Energy Poverty Index 2: Lack of Financial Capacity to Afford PMS

The current Pump prices of PMS occasioned by the removal of the Fuel subsidy created the lack of financial capacity for the majority of Nigerians to afford it for normal functionality due to the very low and disproportionate income earning in the Country. The Pump prices of imported fuel sold at Filling stations are now dependent on the international market price of Crude oil, exchange rates, and also importation and handling charges. All these costs and charges combined have taken the financial capacity to afford PMS away from many Households.

Let’s review possible remedies that could restore financial capacity to Nigerians to afford PMS as follows to positively impact Energy poverty:

 Replacing Palliatives with Direct Bank Transfers

Germany’s International News Channel Deutsche Welle (DW) Television reported on the 15^th of January 2024 that thousands of Tractors were mobilized by Farmers to join a rally in the German capital demanding a rethink of the Government’s plan to end fuel tax break by blocking Berlin traffic. One of the protesters, a Wheat farmer interviewed by a DW correspondent complained bitterly that there is no way they can survive competition with other international Farmers if the Government goes ahead with plans to end Diesel subsidies because this automatically increases the cost of production and translates into a direct proportionate increase on the selling price to be offered by German farmers and hence, cannot match Price competition at the international market.

This indicates that Governments across the World offer some form of subsidies or taxes on energy even in Countries where it is readily available to combat the Energy poverty element of financial capacity to afford the type of energy that households and the productive sector require for normal functionality. Subsidy enables households with low-income earners to access energy and the Productive sector to stay competitive just as demanded by the German farmers.

The President should have approached the Fuel subsidy removal with greater caution and tactic by stepping down the Presidential inauguration declaration of 29^th May 2023, Fuel subsidy is gone, which immediately threw the PMS market into chaos causing artificial scarcity and exorbitant increases in Pump prices, taking the capacity to afford the product away from about 80% of the citizens. It was a decision taken too early that we thought the Administration was fully prepared for due to the promise made by the President to hit the ground running right from day 1. Yes, we are still standing by the President.

With the Vulnerability index standing at about 80%, it is strongly suggested that the humongous savings made from Fuel subsidy removal be split into two halves, the Federal Government keeps one half for developmental Projects and Facilities while the other half is shared with all Citizens with BVN identification. The Social welfare database of the Buhari administration consisting of the details of the cronies of Sadiya Umar Farouk, the most disastrous Minister of the era, and other officials of the administration should be discarded because it lacks integrity and should be trashed into the Garbage bin while Direct transfers be made into the Bank account of every Citizen, with special attention to Pensioners this time around until such a time when the capacity to afford PMS is restored to the masses. The wasteful humongous expenditures of ₦3 billion spent on developing the non-existent Welfare database by suspended Minister Betta Edu must be fully refunded since the BVN database exists, it is unnecessary and a waste of scarce resources in this era of pains and sufferings being experienced by the masses. Pensioners were completely left out of the current Palliative arrangement that has been fraught with corruption at all levels. Even the Palliatives arranged by the Federal Government for disbursement through the States by the Governors did not trickle down as expected to the masses, it was shared with the cronies of the Governors instead.

Direct bank transfer through BVN identification which is not prone to corruption will assist in restoring financial capacity to Nigerians to afford PMS and alleviate the sufferings and pains brought about by Fuel subsidy removal.

Impact of Local Refining on PMS Pump Price

The Group Managing Director of NNPC Ltd, Mr. Mele Kolo Kyari, the President of Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, and the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media & Publicity, Ajuri Ngelale at different times made comments indicating that the local production of Petroleum products including PMS by Dangote Refinery, Port Harcourt Refining Company and others in Nigeria is not going to change the Pump price of the commodity.

It became so disappointing when Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) argued that in-country crude oil refining may not significantly reduce petrol prices because the costs of haulage, insurance and associated cost of importation do not constitute the most significant component of cost across the value chain. A report released by the global organization picked holes in the general belief that local refining of crude oil could potentially eliminate the need for petrol subsidies or make the market price affordable.

It argued that unless the international price of crude oil falls below a certain level, while local refining will provide a price cushion, it is not a silver bullet that would magically solve the subsidy problem.

The comments made by Messrs. Kolo Kyari, Aliko Dangote, and Ajuri Ngelale were rather mind-boggling because they did not take into account the several cost components of fuel importation that local refining will eliminate. And that of Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) was so disappointing because it is a versatile Global organization that offers its clients various professional business services which should include international procurements. The cost breakdown of Fuel importation includes but is not limited to the Ex-works price of the product at the foreign Refinery, FOB charges which are the cost of transporting the product from the Refinery to the Port of loading onto a Ship/Vessel, Ocean freight/Shipping cost to Nigeria which is most times 2 to 3 times the cost of the product itself, cost of insuring the product, terminal charges, other associated costs and the very volatile exchange rate conversion.

Now, let’s do a Simulation of Cost breakdown comparisons for Imported and locally refined Fuel with Freight as 2 times the cost of the product for a Shipload of 159 million liters for clarity and better understanding as shown below:

 

Please note that the assumption for the Exchange rate is ₦891 to $1 and the total assumption for Local refining is the added costs of PMS Ex-works price and Local distribution logistics charges.

And for the umpteenth time, please note that the figures contained herein are mere assumptions for clarity and understanding purposes only to show that full-blown local Refining will significantly bring down the Pump price of PMS at Filling stations across the Country irrespective of the international market price of Crude oil benchmark applied, as can be seen from the marked Pump price difference between Imported and locally Refined fuel simulated figures as contained in the Cost breakdown comparisons shown above. These figures are not reemphasized on purpose to avoid being assumed as the real figures.

PwC should know better that there are very significant components of cost across the PMS importation value chain that become eliminated with local refining and significantly bring down the Pump prices of fuel at Filling stations. I stand to be corrected by any Industry expert in the Oil & Gas Importation value chain, please.

Nigerians have at several times demanded that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) should make a copy of the Commercial Invoice for one Shipment of PMS importation available publicly for Nigerians to analyze but the call was not heeded despite the passing of the Freedom of Information bill into law, thereby becoming an Act of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is again nicely asking NNPCL for the umpteenth time to kindly avail Nigerians a copy of the Commercial Invoice for one Shipment of PMS importation for analysis to comprehend and demystify the Fuel subsidy regime now, please.

So, let it be placed on record that local Refining of Crude oil has a very huge impact to play in significantly bringing down the Pump price of PMS and restoring financial capacity to Nigerians to afford PMS.

Illegal Refineries

All Illegal Refineries should be identified, encouraged, assisted to develop and upgraded into less complex standard operating Mini Refineries that can be easily maintained locally and safe for the environment, and support economic and human development in their domain of operation. They should be assisted in acquiring all the statutorily required Licenses to operate legally and should be given Crude oil allocation at the same rates for all local Refineries. This will massively increase the much-needed Refining capacity to further meet our daily Petroleum products consumption needs, develop our home-grown Refining technological ingenuity and competence, and create meaningful and engaging jobs for the teeming youths of our Niger Delta region to eliminate militancy and restiveness rather than willfully destroying the so-called Illegal Refineries with all these vast opportunities all in the name of Illegality when they are discovered in the Creeks or anywhere in the Country.

Conversion of Illegal Refineries into Mini Refineries will assist in achieving affordable Petroleum products and restore Buying power back to the citizens.

Conjoin Petroleum Exploration & Generation Licenses

Petroleum Exploration licence is strongly recommended for review to be conjoined with Power Generation license to become a joint responsibility of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) to take advantage of the available and abundant waste,flare gas by processing into Liquified Natural Gas (NLG) and channel as feedback for new generation plants.

This will serve to encourage Investors with the capacity to invest in both Petroleum exploration operations and Power generation plants side by side. This novel approach will go a lot further in expanding both our crude oil and and Power generation capacities simultaneously in achieving Self-Sufficiency in Nigeria’s Energy Sector.

The conjoin Refinery and Power Generation licenses should be spread across the Geopolitical zones to simultaneously make PMS available and affordable throughout the Country at the same Pump price and bring Electric power closer, available, and affordable to the citizens with less losses and good profitability to the Investors.

Currency Exchange Rate

The Naira exchange rate has a huge impact to play in determining the Pump prices of PMS at Filling stations either when Crude oil is sold to local Refineries at International market prices or when applied to determine the currency exchange rate to determine the Naira value for Fuel importation.

In June 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria in one of its bold and commendable moves, authorized Commercial banks to freely trade foreign currency exchange at any rate. The authorization means that banks now have the power to sell foreign currency at market-determined rates, they not only trade on their behalf and for their customers but also provide the channel through which all other participants must trade. They are in essence the principal sellers within the foreign currency exchange market. However, this was hitherto not the case under the watch of Godwin Emefiele, the former CBN Governor who personally usurped this role.

By the authorization to provide the Channel through which all other participants must trade, all foreign currency exchange traders including Black-marketeers must be made to register with and licensed by Commercial banks for trading.

It should not stop there; Nigeria should replicate the international best practice for foreign currency exchange control by mandating all traders to record all daily transactions including Buyer’s details and valid statutory identification reference numbers and submit within a specified period to the supervising Commercial banks. This control will further assist the foreign currency exchange market to settle into one exchange rate.

These recommendations will shore up the value of the Naira currency exchange when applied as a benchmark to determine the international market price of Crude oil, Fuel importation, and other international market commodities.

Improving Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value addition created through the production of goods and services in a Country during a certain period. As such, it also measures the income earned from that production or the total amount spent on final goods and services (less imports). Changes in the GDP reveal changes in economic growth and can directly impact the relative value of a country’s currency. A high GDP reflects larger production rates, an indication of greater demand for that country’s products.

Nigeria can further shore up the value of the Naira currency when we move away from a consumer economy to a production economy by stopping the importation of goods that are locally available in-country and buying made-in-Nigeria goods only.

Very recently, our distinguished Senators rejected locally assembled SUVs for the imported versions, sending wrong signals to foreign investors seeking to come and invest in our economy who may fear getting such rejections extended to their investments when established in-country. This is also jeopardizing all the foreign investment-seeking trips of President Tinubu so far since assuming office.

Nigeria can also extend value addition to all available natural resources after exploration before exporting. This means that no natural resource will be exported before processing which is a manufacturing activity that will open up the Country for more foreign and private investors to participate and grow our economy, further improve revenue earnings, create tons more jobs for our teeming and restive youths and spread development across the Geopolitical zones of the Country. The natural resources in reference here do not preclude Crude oil, this means the establishment of more Refineries to service the export market for foreign exchange earnings to improve our foreign exchange reserve. This will to a very large extent shore up the value of our Naira currency and bring forth a strong positive impact on the exchange rate when applied as a benchmark to determine the international market price of Crude oil for local refining or Fuel importation.

Growing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) comes highly recommended in restoring financial capacity to afford PMS back to Nigerians.

Energy Poverty Index 1: Non–Availability of Diverse & Clean Energy Sources

This part is sufficiently addressed to some good level with Nigeria’s abundant Oil & Gas reserves in the Niger Delta region. The part that requires some attention is making Oil & Gas clean enough and safe for the environment in compliance with the over-ambitious Nigeria Energy Transition Plan launched in 2022 which may plunge the Country into further Energy poverty if we have to move away from our God-given naturally free Fossil fuels to Renewable energy that is mostly expensive to acquire. These are already treated in Part 1 of this Article.

Natural Gas is clean energy that is already made available in the diversity necessary to sufficiently make choices required for automobile and mechanical functionality in this context. The government needs to encourage and drive more private and foreign investments into the research and development of the conversion and adaption technology from Fuel to Gas to drive Automobiles, Generators, and other Mechanical applications for commercial production with incentives and tax reliefs where necessary to confer financial capacity on Nigerians to afford the conversion technology.

Implementing all the listed recommendations suggested in this treatise to address the two main indices that determine Energy poverty in the Country will further assist in achieving full self-sufficiency in Nigeria’s Energy sector.

Cleaning the Most Potent Augean Stable

The Augean stables inherited from the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari are the two state-owned Organizations and very critical players in the Nation’s economy, the 1^st is the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the 2^nd is the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL).

President Tinubu upon assumption of Office suspended the former Governor of CBN, Godwin Emefiele to pave the way for a full-blown investigation and audit of the organization without hindrance and appointed an independent Auditor for the audit task. CBN has been reorganized and is already churning out a lot of monetary and financial reforms that have started yielding remarkable positive impacts on the Economy.

Former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the 14^th Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi while speaking at the Bank Directors Summit organised by the Bank Directors Association of Nigeria, which was held in Abuja on Thursday, December 8, 2023, summarized the two Augean stables below as follows:

“The NNPCL is the most opaque (Opaquest) oil company in the world. When I was in the central bank for 15 years, they had not been audited. We have to follow the money from production to export to return; where is the money going? We paid N11tn in subsidy, and there is no accountability until now.” 

Sanusi also noted that the National Assembly once directed the NNPCL to bring its audit documents, but they refused.

He said the Ministry of Finance is unaware of the country’s petroleum export and revenue generated from the trade by the industry.

“The finance ministry needs to know how much oil we produce daily, how much we sell, and where the money is going. There’s a need to shine a light on the NNPCL.”

It is worthy of note that within 2010-2023, an estimated 11.35 trillion have been spent on renovating refineries which are currently redundant. Another $592m, £4.8m, and 3.5m pounds were also spent on extra projects relating to the renovation of refineries within this period.

OrderPaper reported that the Senate, miffed by this waste of public funds, directed its committee on Downstream Petroleum to investigate the contracts awarded for the rehabilitation of all the state-owned refineries between 2010 and 2023.

While the committee is yet to report back on its findings, Sanusi has challenged the 10th NASS committees, urging them to rectify the issues caused by the inefficiency of the previous committees that led citizens to suffer the current economic hardship.

He asked that the committees scrutinize the petroleum sector, noting that restricting the autonomy of the CBN through the amendment of the existing CBN Act is not a solution.

He urged, instead, for a proper audit of the NNPCL to unravel the country’s daily oil production, export, and accrued revenue.

” There is nothing wrong with the Central Bank of Nigeria Act. Now, if people who are supposed to implement a law don’t implement it, the solution is not to change the law, and this reaction is knee-jerk if you take away the central bank’s independence and bring it under political control,” he noted.

The 2^nd Augean stable, NNPCL is the most potent that can make or mar this administration with the misleading information and strategies of deceptions deployed in the management of the Petroleum products deregulation that is making Nigerians suffer excruciating pains and sufferings. Alhaji Sanuasi Lamido Sanusi has summed it all up, NNPCL must be immediately cleaned up by the President ordering the launch of full-blown Investigations into the activities and Auditing its Books, and thereafter, overhaul and completely reform the operations of NNPCL to reposition the Organization to start playing the statutorily assigned critical role to Nigeria’s economy.

NNPCL is already pitting Nigerians against the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu because of the belief that the President is deliberately inflicting “Shege Promax” in the parlance of OBIdients, on the Nation!!!

Conclusion

The impact of PMS subsidy removal cannot be gainsaid to have worsened not only the Energy poverty from 60% in April 2023 to over 80% to date but also worsened poverty on every other index of standard living in Nigeria because PMS is a function that impacts a ripple effect on every aspect of our daily lives. The over 225% increase in fuel prices across the Nation has triggered a chain reaction causing higher costs of transportation, food, and every other aspect of daily living and ultimately contributing to inflation. This has further drastically reduced the Purchasing power of Nigerians and has taken away the financial capacity to afford minimum living conditions. Businesses have closed down on a massive scale because they can no longer compete favourably on the local and international markets which is what the protesting German farmers are being proactive about to preempt from happening to them as well. Nigerians can hardly eat one balanced diet in a day while some go hungry for days without food to eat, and Parents are now being put to shame because they can no longer afford to pay their Children’s School fees.

 

Again, it is mind-boggling to see and hear Government, Oil & Gas Industry Owners, decision-makers, Industry experts, and Professionals endorse the application of international market price as a benchmark to determine the price of Crude oil for local refining in a Country with low and disproportionate Income paying a ridiculous monthly minimum wage within the range between ₦20,000 to ₦30,000 in the equivalent range of $22.45 to $33.67 compared with that of USA at $1,218 as justification to why Fuel Pump price will not be drastically reduced.

Since this benchmark was adopted for the local refining of Crude oil, same should just be adopted for monthly minimum wage review payable to Nigerians at $1,218, straight away to restore financial capacity to afford PMS and every other index of standard living and fully address Energy poverty in Nigeria for good. The Nigerian minimum wage earning which is our benchmark for buying power is nowhere comparable to the American buying power with the Staggering minimum difference of $1,195.55 but despite this, the Administration is exposing us to the same international market price rates.

Mr. President Sir, you have been dangerously misled going by the incomparable data above to wrongly apply the benchmark of international market prices to Crude oil for local refining which means there is no end in sight for the severe pains and sufferings we are going through. There is no logic to this, please. Any data that does not compare Apple to Apple must be trashed in the Garbage bin immediately. You have also been wrongly deceived to believe that Governments all over the world no longer subsidize fuel until the January 2024 protests in Germany led by Farmers. No Government in the world completely abandons the citizenry to the mercy of market forces in accessing Energy.

Nigeria needs to wise up and wake up to the reality of the comments of Dr. Adeleke Oyenusi, a Nigerian British citizen, “This is why all over the world (USA, Britain, Germany, etc.) the government comes in to intervene, they don’t just leave the masses at its bad end. They will ameliorate the pump prices for the end consumers, else riots will break loose from the masses.” Though the End-Sars protests were ill-motivated and ill-conceived we are all living witnesses to the very terrible consequences it brought upon our Lagos and by extension Nigeria. This must not happen again my President Sir. Although it all looks quiet right now, this should not be taken for granted because the pain we all feel is getting too extreme.  We voted for you because we believe in you and love you as well. The recommendations contained in the sub-heading: Replaced Palliatives by Direct Bank Transfers should be carefully considered for implementation to address this abnormality and ease our collective severe pains.

Another ticking time Bomb is the implementation of a Cost reflective tariff across the board by DisCos for all Domestic consumers in this era of severe pains and suffering in outright disregard to the Presidential directive to achieve incremental increase in Power supply to the nation before this can come up for implementation consideration as communicated by the Honourable Minister of Power. Over 80% of the population has been without a regular public Power supply for months now. The timing and methodology are all wrong, kindly go through Part 1 of this Article to gain insights into the realistic approach or methodology recommended to achieve this without worsening our current situation. How will citizens cope under this exposure to “Double Shege Promax” this time around???

Your Excellency my President Sir, Depression has taken over the Land, People are committing suicide and dying in droves because they have lost it all. Other Nigerians are embracing Japa in multitudes while the irony and twist of fate is that a multitude of foreigners are flooding into our Country in the same drive yet the Government does not see this as fundamentally wrong. Do not wait any further to initiate sweeping reforms to clean up all the identified Augean stables and save Nigeria from the edge of this precipice, please.

kindly create time to read through the Articles: Roadmap to Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Nigeria’s Energy Sector Parts 1 & 2 through the same Online media platform of Church Times Nigeria, the recommendations therein are very friendly for implementation, they are not Rocket science at all.

Read also: Roadmap to achieving self-sufficiency in Nigeria’s energy sector Part 1: https://churchtimesnigeria.net/roadmap-to-achieving-self-sufficiency-in-nigerias-energy-sector/

God bless and long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria!!!

About the Author

Evangelist, Engr. Adesegun Olutayo Osibanjo attended the prestigious Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria, where he obtained a Bachelor of Engineering (B.Eng.) degree in Electrical Engineering and also obtained a Master in Business Administration (M.B.A) degree in Marketing Management option from the Lagos State University Ojo, Lagos, Nigeria.

Engr. Osibanjo works for MaakBeat Transnational Ltd, an Energy, Engineering, Project & Construction Consulting, Procurement/Logistics, Safety, and Agricultural Value chain Company. He is a COREN registered Engineer, a Member of the Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE) and Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Management of Nigeria (CIPSMN), and has attended many Courses locally and internationally.

Evangelist Osibanjo is the Organizing Secretary of the Directorate of Politics & Governance of the Redemption City of God Chapter. He is also a Political Evangelism Crusader engaging and encouraging the top echelon of Faith based Institutions like the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) to add the role of Political Torch-bearers as part of their responsibilities to their congregations and followers to become actively involved in Grassroots Politics. He is a renowned National and Global Affairs Analyst and Commentator.

Author’s contacts

Email: adeolu.osibanjo@outlook.com, maakbeat@gmail.com, ceo@maakbeat.com

X (formerly Twitter): @BoboOshy