By Oyewole O. Sarumi
The recent gathering at the Lagos Marriott Hotel for the Association of Industrial Pharmacists of Nigeria (NAIP) Economic Outlook and CEOs Forum was, by all accounts, a spectacle of grandeur.
With the dignified presence of His Royal Majesty Igwe Nnaemeka Alfred Achebe, the Obi of Onitsha, and the intellectual force of Mallam Muhammadu Sanusi II, the Emir of Kano, the event carried the weight of a royal decree. The mandate solidified there was clear: Nigeria must accelerate towards 70 percent local drug production by 2030.
As an observer with over four decades of experience traversing the pharmaceutical ecosystem of Europe, Asia, and the Americas, I applaud this ambition.
The sight of industry captains like Dr. Okey Akpa, Dr. Ifeanyi Okoye, and Pharm. Ahmed Babashehu uniting for “Health Security” is encouraging. However, as I reviewed the reports of this “solutions-focused platform,” a familiar sense of déjà vu washed over me.
We have been here before. If we retrace the memory lane, the National Drug Policy of 2005 set a similar target: to utilize 70 percent of local capacity and satisfy 60 percent of national drug requirements by 2008. That deadline passed eighteen years ago, and today, we remain stuck at a meager 30 percent local production, while a staggering 70-80 percent of our medicines are still imported. We are, in essence, running on a treadmill, expending energy and generating heat, but moving nowhere.
The time for “talk shops” is over. If Nigeria is to avoid repeating this cycle of unfulfilled promises, we must look beyond the pageantry of conferences and dissect the brutal realities of our supply chain. We must ask the hard questions: Why are we still importing 100 percent of our Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)? Why are our research institutes failing to commercialize their findings? And most importantly, what did India and China do that we are refusing to do?
The API Trap: Why “Local Production” is a Mirage
To the uninitiated, “local production” in Nigeria often looks like manufacturing. In reality, for many facilities, it is merely “packaging.” As of today, nearly every tablet pressed in Lagos or Ogun State relies on an Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) imported from India or China. We are not manufacturing drugs; we are finishing them.
This distinction is not semantic; it is an existential threat. By relying on imported APIs and excipients, the Nigerian pharmaceutical industry effectively imports the inflation, exchange rate volatility, and supply chain shocks of foreign nations. When the Naira fluctuates against the Dollar, the cost of the raw powder needed to make paracetamol or antimalarials spikes overnight. We are building our house on the shifting sands of the foreign exchange market.
The recent forum touched on this, with NAIP Chairman Pharm. Bankole Ezebuilo calling for “patient capital.” But capital alone is insufficient without a structural shift. We cannot claim “Health Security” when the very molecules that cure our citizens are synthesized in factories in Gujarat or Jiangsu, subject to the whims of foreign export bans (as we saw during COVID-19).
Lessons from the Asian Tigers: The India and China Playbook
If Nigeria is to leap from 30 percent to 80 percent production, we must clinically analyze the ascent of the current global giants. Their dominance was not an accident; it was engineered.
India: The power of Process Patents and Reverse Engineering
In the 1970s, India was in a position not unlike Nigeria today. Their pivotal move was the Patents Act of 1970. Unlike the West, which protected the product, India chose to protect only the process. This allowed Indian companies to legally reverse-engineer patented drugs, provided they used a different manufacturing process. This unleashed a wave of innovation and cost-reduction that birthed giants like Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s.
Furthermore, the Indian government didn’t just ask for growth; they incentivized it through Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, offering financial rewards to companies that manufactured key starting materials (KSMs) and APIs domestically. They focused on generics, the bread and butter of global health, and mastered the art of low-cost, high-volume production.
China: Vertical Integration and Economies of Scale
China took a different, more industrial route. Their strategy was vertical integration. A Chinese pharmaceutical park doesn’t just make the final drug; it makes the basic chemicals, the solvents, the intermediates, and the APIs all in one ecosystem. This drastically reduces logistics costs and “friend-shores” the supply chain within their own borders.
Moreover, China focused on massive scale. While a standard fermenter in the West might hold 20,000 liters, Chinese factories installed 200,000-liter tanks. This economy of scale allowed them to drop prices so low that competitors globally, including in the West, could not compete, forcing them to shut down and effectively handing the global monopoly on penicillin and vitamin C to China.
The Nigerian Reality: Research Disconnect and The Way Forward
Contrasting the Asian aggressive industrial policy with our current state showed a marjex difference. We have research institutes like the National Institute for Pharmaceutical Research and Development (NIPRD) and the Institute for Drug-Herbal Medicine-Excipient Research and Development at UNN. While reports indicate NIPRD has engaged in over 100 collaborations and is working on WHO pre-qualification support, the translation of these efforts into commercial products remains agonizingly slow.
Our research institutes are often treated as academic ivory towers rather than industrial engines. They must be “rejigged.” We do not need more papers published in journals; we need patents filed and licensed to local manufacturers. We need a mandate that challenges these institutes to develop locally potent APIs from our abundant petrochemical and agricultural resources. If we have cassava, why are we importing pharmaceutical-grade starch? If we have petrochemical refineries (Dangote, etc.), why are we importing the solvents needed for drug synthesis?
There are sparks of hope. The Emzor Pharmaceutical API plant in Sagamu, a reported multimillion-dollar investment, is a monumental step in the right direction. It proves that local API production is possible. But one swallow does not make a summer. We need ten, twenty such plants, backed by government guarantees to purchase their output for national hospitals.
The AI Advantage: An Opportunity to Leapfrog
We are in the year 2026. We do not need to follow the exact slow path India took in the 1980s. We have a tool they did not: Artificial Intelligence.
The Nigerian tech sector is thriving; it is time to marry it with pharma. AI can be used to:
- Accelerate Drug Discovery: specialized AI models can screen thousands of local phytomedicines (herbal compounds) in days rather than decades, identifying active molecules that can be synthesized into modern drugs.
- Optimize Manufacturing: AI-driven Quality Control systems can detect defects in production lines with greater accuracy than human inspectors, reducing waste and ensuring global-standard quality, a prerequisite for exporting to the West.
- Predictive Supply Chain: AI can forecast disease outbreaks and raw material shortages, allowing Nigerian companies to stock up on APIs before prices spike.
A 10-Year Strategic Roadmap for Dominance
To move from 30 percent to 80 percent and dominate the African market, I propose the following “War Room” strategy for the Nigerian leaders:
1..Mandatory Backward Integration Policy: The Federal Government must set a timeline (e.g., 5 years) after which the importation of certain basic APIs (like paracetamol or amoxicillin) will be banned. This forces companies to invest in local API plants or partner with those who do.
2.Establish “Pharma Cities” (SEZs): Replicate the Chinese model. Designate zones in Lagos, Kano, and Anambra as Pharmaceutical Special Economic Zones. These zones should have dedicated power (24/7 gas turbines), shared effluent treatment plants, and tax holidays for companies that manufacture, not just package,drugs.
3.Reform the Research Mandate: Tie funding for NIPRD and universities directly to commercial outcomes. “Show me the drug on the shelf, and I will show you the grant.”
4..The “Patient Capital” Fund: The Bank of Industry and Central Bank must create a specific, single-digit interest rate fund strictly for API plant machinery. Commercial loans at 25% interest will never build a factory; they only finance trading.
5.Leverage the AfCFTA: Nigeria should position itself as the “Pharmacy of Africa.” We must harmonize our regulatory standards (NAFDAC) with our West African neighbors so that a drug registered in Nigeria is automatically accepted in Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Senegal.
Conclusion
The gathering at the Lagos Marriott was a powerful statement of intent. The royal blessings of the Obi of Onitsha and the Emir of Kano have provided the legitimacy. Now, the captains of industry, the CEOs of Fidson, Emzor, May & Baker, and others, must provide the grit.
We cannot talk our way to 80 percent sufficiency. We must build, engineer, and innovate our way there. The world is not waiting for Nigeria. India is moving into biologics; China is mastering gene therapy. If we do not act now to secure our basic chemical sovereignty, we will remain a nation of 200 million people dependent on the generosity of strangers for our health.
The blueprint is clear. The market is vast. The potential is limitless. Let us stop admiring the architects and start laying the bricks.
About the Author
Prof. Sarumi is an International Pharmaceutical Consultant with over 40 years of experience advising governments and corporations across Europe, Asia, and Africa on pharmaceutical industrialization, supply chain sovereignty, and strategic policy.